A blistering indictment has been launched against Nigeria’s decades-long industrial gamble, with economist and professor Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka describing the fate of the Ajaokuta Steel Company Limited as nothing short of an economic catastrophe wrapped in political negligence.
Speaking at a virtual international conference on April 16, 2026, the professor delivered a scathing verdict: a national project once hailed as the backbone of Nigeria’s industrial future has become a “financial black hole” and a “monument to unrealised ambition.”
Despite swallowing an estimated $10 billion and reaching near-completion decades ago, the massive 24,000-hectare steel complex in Kogi State has never produced a single tonne of steel.
Instead, it stands frozen in time—silent, rusting, and abandoned.
“Ajaokuta suffers from the sunk cost fallacy,” he warned. “We keep pouring money into failure, hoping dead investments will somehow come back to life.”
The consequences, he argued, have been devastating. Nigeria now spends roughly $4 billion every year importing steel—funding foreign industries while its own industrial giant gathers dust.
“We surrendered our industrial sovereignty,” he said. “Every tonne of imported steel is a lost opportunity to build our own economy.”
Had the plant become operational, it could have supplied a quarter of national demand and saved nearly $1 billion annually in foreign exchange. Over four decades, the losses balloon into an estimated $36 billion—far beyond the original investment.
Oyelaran-Oyeyinka pointed to global industrial powers like China, India, and South Korea, where steel became the backbone of economic transformation. Nigeria, he said, chose paralysis instead of production.
“Steel is the foundation of modern civilisation,” he said sharply. “Without it, there is no industrial power.”
The human toll is equally staggering. The project promised over 10,000 direct jobs and hundreds of thousands more indirectly. Instead, it delivered decades of unemployment, stalled skills development, and a missed chance to turn Kogi State into an industrial hub.
Calling the situation a “national embarrassment,” he said bluntly: “A country of over 230 million people without primary steel production is a travesty.”
His solution is radical but clear—privatisation. He argued that government management has failed repeatedly and that only a private consortium working with experienced global steel operators can revive the dormant giant.
“The time for hesitation is over,” he declared. “Nigeria must choose action over endless paralysis.”
Yet amid the harsh criticism, he maintained that revival is still possible. A functional Ajaokuta, he said, could generate up to $14 billion annually and reshape Nigeria’s industrial future.
“Reviving Ajaokuta is not just about steel,” he concluded. “It is about whether Nigeria will finally take control of its economic destiny—or remain trapped in its past failures.”
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