•2027: Opposition too weak to stop Tinubu
With 32 governors in its kitty and a fractured opposition scrambling for a single candidate, the APC appears to hold the aces ahead of 2027. But Senator Ayo Arise, a ranking APC chieftain in Ekiti State, warns that “managing success can be an issue.”
In this interview, he explains why he believes President Bola Tinubu will win effortlessly if the party fields popular candidates, why the ADC crisis makes it a risky platform for the opposition, and why hardship linked to the Iran-US war won’t stop Tinubu’s re-election.
Arise, who is seeking a return to the Senate, also vows to ensure free and fair primaries in Ekiti: “If I see anybody rigging, I will follow the person to jail.”
In my last interview with you, you practically declared Tinubu’s re-election as a done deal. Looking at the present dynamics, do you think that opinion still holds?
If the primaries of our party are properly handled, and the people are allowed to decide those who will represent them in a free and fair election, I believe the President will win a second term. I am saying this because the people are on his side, the governors are on his side, and the majority of members of the National Assembly are on his side. Once there is a free and fair election, I do not see any problem at all with my position at that time and my position now.
You are seeking a return to the Senate. What are your concerns about the APC primaries in Ekiti State?
As for the primary election in Ekiti State, I have been the champion of the cause of many people. Some individuals wanted to sit somewhere and select who they want to contest the upcoming elections. But I told them, ‘Look, we are going to do proper election here in Ekiti.’ And I am going to ensure that I protect my vote. There is no single person among them who has my experience and age. I want to give something back and leave a good legacy for my people. We are educated and our education should be used positively. The way some people are keeping our people down, if we do not stand up and do something, it may result in an angry reaction from the populace. If it happens, many of us can become victims. At every opportunity, I want to ensure that I do what is right.
Now, a number of people have obtained their forms. In the past, I understand what they do is to hoard forms. I don’t know who benefits if you don’t sell forms. When you sell forms, the party makes money to provide the supervision that is necessary. I restate, we are going to do primaries in Ekiti. And I am sure Mr President will support us.
Already, the party is making a whole lot of effort to ensure that there is a free and fair contest, having significantly played down the issue of consensus, which will leave the fortune of most politicians in the hands of a few people if not properly checked. I believe the way the party is running, without any attempts to rig out some people, there will not be much problem.
I don’t think there would ever be a time that you have a perfect situation as regards primary elections. The important thing is to minimise disagreement to a level where everybody can feel satisfied with the level playing ground. So long as the issue of electoral malpractice is not introduced by any politician, I believe the resolution of disputes that may arise will not be difficult. Once a person has gone through the primary and has lost fairly, the next thing is to accept the outcome because somebody has to win an election.
In this Ekiti, people must vote for their leader. And if anybody rigs, there are provisions in the constitution to ensure that anybody caught is sent to jail. Some people have escaped that because nobody has made it his duty to ensure that such a person is made to face the full weight of the law. If I see anybody rigging and I have been able to record it, I will follow the person to jail. I will use whatever resources available to pick one or two examples. Democracy is a process. When that process is followed, everybody benefits.
APC has taken full advantage of the instability in the opposition parties, securing 31 state governors out of 36. Does this guarantee victory for your party?
Sometimes, managing success can be an issue. Even at that, with the number of governors in the kitty of the APC, we expect to win the election massively. And I hope that the governors will ensure that they field popular candidates in their respective domains. Once that is done, it will help the President to win his election effortlessly. Most of the governors are better equipped now to perform under Tinubu because there is more money for them to build infrastructure. I believe most of them would have performed better than previous governors. The positive effect of their performance will rub off on the presidency compared to the experience of the past. In addition to that, the effect of direct allocation to local governments will also be felt at the grassroots level. That in turn will result in electoral victory. When we start to campaign, they should let the electorate know that these are the policies of Mr President. Of course, some people will always complain about hardship. It is the duty of every member of APC to educate the public about the positive side of these policies. Once this is done, I don’t foresee any danger in the upcoming election. The President will coast home to victory without any difficulty.
Opposition will always talk about hardship. It is the duty of party members to continue to educate the populace and their communities about the positive work the President has done.
How do you see the opposition parties’ plan to field a single candidate against President Tinubu?
The fact that they have resolved to present a single candidate does not necessarily mean it will result in victory. After all, most of them had been in government in the past. It is the major work of the APC campaign committee to ensure that key issues are made clear to the general public and the points are marshalled adequately to the grassroots level. President Tinubu has done a lot to improve the lives of Nigerians in several sectors. So long as we have popular candidates at the grassroots level, I do not see the presence of opposition as a threat to the re-election of the President. Opposition will always be there, but I don’t see them as a threat to the APC. In the last three years, the President has put so many people in positions of power. They will all work in their respective zones to ensure victory for the party. As long as people do what they need to do in their respective states and they campaign well, leveraging the positive effects of such policies as the social welfare scheme, loan disbursement to students through NELFUND, as well as road infrastructure projects across the country, I believe there will be no problem winning this election. We are not sitting down idly. We are going to campaign in every local government and explain the positive impacts of these policies to the grassroots people.
How much campaign about the policies of the government at the grassroots will convince ordinary people, who are feeling the pain of the hardship of the economy, to vote again for the President?
Hardship is everywhere, not only in Nigeria but globally. The major one is probably the cost of petrol which has gone up since the Iran-US war started. It is global, not peculiar to Nigeria. The cost of petrol in the US is above $4.00 per gallon. People there too are shouting and there is nothing anybody can do until the war is over. As of today, the price of crude oil per barrel is above $100 and this has a direct impact on the cost of petrol. People in government should ensure that they open opportunities for the people in their respective domains. They should let the people know that the high price of fuel is as a result of the war. As the war ends, the price will come down. The President has consistently looked at how the impact can be reduced by providing customs tariff waivers for electric vehicles and gas vehicles. Once these come in, the pressure on petrol will be reduced. He has brilliant minds working for him to create different avenues to abate the current hardship. As far as I know, this is the only President in all my life that is actually very proactive, responding to issues very quickly and providing solutions for them. When you explain some of these things to a rational person, he will understand that there is no magician anywhere. In the next four years, Nigeria will be a nation other nations will envy. I have studied many of the past Presidents in this country. It is now that we have a President who means well for this country. Under the present administration, the Federal Government is now building concrete roads that will last for a minimum of 30 years. Yes, everybody is looking for power. But I think this President has earned his second term by what he has done. I will continue to advocate for that and I will continue to campaign for him.
The inability of opposition parties to organise themselves has been largely blamed on the interference of the ruling party and the Presidency. Is that how democracy runs?
America, which we copy, is the oldest democracy. I don’t think Donald Trump has been supporting the Democratic Party to get everything right. So, if you say the President has a hand in the crisis, it is because opposition parties have allowed themselves to be influenced. I don’t think the President should be the one organising opposition parties to be successful. If anybody says the President is responsible for the crisis in the opposition parties, he is just being unrealistic. The President knows that he has opposition but if opposition parties cannot manage themselves, I don’t think it is the responsibility of the President to manage them to defeat his own party. I don’t think the President is deliberately working on opposition not to succeed. Those people putting blame on the President are not being realistic.
Everybody is vilifying INEC and the judiciary for being responsible for the instability within the opposition parties. What does this suggest for Nigeria’s evolving democratic culture?
There must always be a whipping boy in any system. In this same country, we’ve seen the opposition take over from an incumbent President. I don’t think anybody has given INEC credit for doing that. We always say INEC is bad but we have forgotten the fact that it is this same INEC that moved us from the era of snapping Almanac to get faces and names of people they would put in the electoral register to the current electronic voting system. People must now use their fingerprints to determine authentic voters. There are still challenges here and there, but the system is getting better. We must all work together to make the country better.
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