By Abbati Bako, political strategy and communications consultant and Alumnus of the University of Kent, the only UK's European University
With incumbency or not any government in the center that cannot win the majority in 3KKK States of Northern Nigeria's election (Kano,Kaduns and Katsina) they already lost the election before casting the votes.
What matters most in democracy is the majority votes. The three KKK States will be the deciding factor in the 2027 election in Nigeria for being that the 3 States have more than ¼ of registered voters in Nigeria. Other states with high registered voters are Lagos and Rivers States.
Hence, the Northwest and NorthEast may likely be the soft theorem area of ADC party and battle ground areas of APC. And again, the North Central may likely be the battle ground areas of APC. In the 2023 election the North gave 62% of votes for the current President Bola Ahmed Tinubu that won the election.
And again, in his X page Senator Dino Melaye (former lawmaker) highlighted the 2023 presidential election results, “noting that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso secured 997,279 votes in Kano State alone and the figures he got surpassed the total votes garnered by the APC in 11 states, including Bayelsa, Delta, Taraba, Gombe, Borno, Yobe, Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, and Imo”. This is an indication that APC committed serious mistakes to allow Senator Dr. Engr. Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso to get a chance to join the ADC party because of the fact that Kano state alone can give ADC 3 to 4 millions votes in 2027 since there are about or more than 6.5m registered voters in the State. Kano State is the most populous State in Nigeria with a projection of about 25m population.
The Nigerian general election is shaping up to be a significant contest, with the All Progressives Congress (APC) facing challenges in retaining power. According to peripheral research conducted recently by some experts, about 85% of the current Senators and House of Representatives members that defected to the APC party from the North may lose their seats. This may happen due to the fact that the 11 years policies implemented by the APC party have created lamentation, accumulation of anger and prostration due to economic hardship, precarity, inflation, security challenges and generally stagflation.
Sincerely speaking, many people in the North lost confidence in democratic system and possibly election apathy may happen not only in the North but in the entire Nigerian Nation. This has been as a result of bad governance, this writing is on the same page with Professor Paul Collier of the University of Oxford, UK that “bad governance” is the root cause of the failure of democracy in the African Continent.
This has confirmed the claims of late Fela Anikulafo Kuti in the early 1980s during the Second Republic that “Democrazy is in practice in Nigeria not Democracy and the drums continue beating”. This assertion was supported by world first class scholars in political science, Professors Paul Collier of Oxford University, London and Larry Diamond’s book on democracy in Africa (1998) and that of Paul Collier’s book titled “Wars, Guns and Votes: Democracy in Dangerous Places 2009, London. The reason why these scholars made that claim has been that up till today in Nigeria's democratic practice and other most African countries; rules, elements and principles of democratic system have been bastardized. Hence, this writing suggests that democracy can hardly last in Nigeria and most African countries. Currently, there's about 9 undemocratic countries in Africa including Mali, Niger Republic and Burkina Faso.
The APC's dominance is being tested, with several factors at play:
Incumbency advantage:
The APC currently controls about 31 state governments and has a strong presence in the National Assembly. Hence, the 2027 elections in Nigeria is between the political elite team and the rest of Nigerians.
Opposition alliances:
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has formed a coalition with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Senate President David Mark, Dr. Engr. Rabi'u Musa Kwankwaso, Peter Obi, Chief Amechi, Malam Nasuru El-Rufa’i, Barr. Abubakar Malami (SAN) challenged the APC. Also, the faction of PDP under the leadership of Barr. Tanimu Turaki (SAN). This writing understands that the democratic transition in Nigeria is seriously under threat. The system can only survive if there's free, fair, credible, acceptable in accordance with international standards.
Economic concerns:
The Tinubu administration's economic reforms have been met with mixed reactions, and the opposition is capitalizing on these concerns. Countries such as Bangladesh, Kenya, Uganda, Burkina Faso, Niger Republic, Mali and many more economic emerging Nations in most of the Global Southern Hemisphere had failed in implementation of 10 prescriptions of the World Bank/IMF. Even their economic consultant Professor John Williamson of Washington admitted that his advice on economic emerging markets is a failure. Can President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria succeed in economic reforms?
*To win, the APC will need to
Maintain grassroots support:
The party's strength in local areas will be crucial in securing votes. And the issue of voter validation in the country can create serious problem that can hamper the possibility of conducting the elections or create serious apathy in the country.
Address economic concerns:
The government must demonstrate tangible improvements in the cost of living, security challenges, inflation and job creation of the youth.
Unite the opposition:
The ADC-led coalition may pose a significant challenge to the APC to easily win the elections of 2027. But will the APC's incumbency advantage be enough to secure victory? The current Chairman of INEC will ensure a free, fair, credible, rigging free and globally acceptable constitutional democratic elections in Nigeria? Only time will tell.
Post a Comment