The price of petrol in Lagos could rise to N1,411 per litre in November 2026 if current freight charges, insurance premiums and other import-related costs remain unchanged, an energy analyst has projected.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, made the projection while analysing the factors influencing the cost of petrol deliveries into Nigeria.
According to him, the rising cost of transporting physical petroleum cargoes, alongside insurance premiums and the difference between dated Brent crude prices and futures contracts, has increased the actual cost of supplying petrol.
Emmanuel explained that physical cargo deliveries had become approximately $30 more expensive than futures contract prices, putting additional pressure on the domestic petroleum market.
Breaking down his November estimate, the analyst calculated the landing cost using a crude oil delivery cost of $145.60, alongside $1.21 in levies and tariffs payable to the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA).
He arrived at a combined landing cost of $146.81 before applying the refinery premium of $80 per metric tonne.
After incorporating the exchange rate and other expenses, Emmanuel estimated the ex-gate refinery price at approximately N1,376 per litre. Adding N35 for trucking and related charges brought the projected Lagos pump price to N1,411 per litre.
He further explained that Dangote Petroleum Refinery's pricing was influenced by import parity because approximately 40 per cent of its feedstock was sourced internationally.
The analyst also noted that domestic crude supplies under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation attracted freight charges of between $9 and $12 per barrel, in addition to premiums paid to third-party traders.
However, some petroleum marketers have questioned the projection, describing the possibility of another increase as speculative.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, dismissed the forecast, arguing that crude oil prices had not recorded a further increase and that marketers were not planning to adjust their pump prices at the time.
He added that petrol was already selling for around N1,400 per litre in some parts of the country.
Similarly, Joseph Obele, National Publicity Secretary of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), expressed doubts about another increase, citing indications that tensions in the Middle East were easing and crude oil prices were declining.
Another independent petroleum marketer, Isa Alheri, however, acknowledged that petrol prices could exceed N1,400 per litre depending on developments in the international market, exchange rates, freight and insurance costs.
Nigeria operates a deregulated downstream petroleum market, where prices are influenced by international crude oil prices, foreign exchange rates, refining costs, transportation and other market-related expenses.
Although the N1,411 projection has raised concerns about possible additional pressure on consumers, it remains a forecast rather than an announced pump price adjustment.
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