Where Is The Subsidy Money? Nigeria Must First Ask: Are We Richer or Just Sharing More Naira?

By Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo

Subsidy removal stopped an unsustainable bleed. That is not in dispute. What remains fiercely disputed is whether the higher FAAC figures now celebrated actually mean more power to build, heal and feed or simply more paper naira chasing a collapsing currency.

Femi Falana, SAN, asked the necessary question: Where are the benefits of petrol subsidy removal? Before any official answers with “Look at the FAAC numbers,” Nigerians must force a harder, more honest question: Are our governments receiving more real resources or merely more devalued naira?

The old regime was bankrupt

Intellectual honesty demands we start here. The subsidy system had become a fiscal black hole. Daily consumption figures that defied logic, widespread smuggling, opaque claims, ballooning Ways and Means advances, debt service devouring revenue, airlines trapped with hundreds of millions of dollars Nigeria had hit the wall. President Tinubu’s May 29, 2023 declaration, “Subsidy is gone,” confronted a genuine emergency. Necessity, however, is not a blank cheque for results.

There was never a giant pot of “subsidy savings”

Removing subsidy did not unlock a hidden vault of trillions waiting to be spent. It largely extinguished a recurring liability. That creates fiscal space. It does not automatically create real wealth. The real questions are therefore sharper: What happened to the space that was created? And how much is that space actually worth today, after the naira’s collapse?

More naira is not more power

Officials correctly note that states and local governments now receive far larger FAAC allocations. Nominally true. Economically incomplete. Prosperity is measured by what money can buy, not by the number of zeros printed on the statement.

A bag of cement tells the story with brutal clarity. When a state received ₦10 billion and cement hovered around ₦4,700, that allocation could buy roughly 2.13 million bags. Today the same state may receive ₦25 billion an impressive 150 per cent jump. Yet at ₦14,500 a bag, it buys only about 1.72 million bags. More naira. Fewer bags. The arithmetic is merciless.

Scale that logic across diesel, bitumen, steel, machinery, medical equipment, foreign services, contractor finance and salaries, and the boast that allocations have “tripled” becomes almost meaningless without asking what those trillions can still deliver.

The same test for Abuja and the 36 states

Governors cannot hide behind inflation. Higher nominal receipts still demand transparent accounting of results: kilometres of road, classrooms, primary healthcare centres, fertiliser, megawatts, boreholes. The Federal Government faces the identical test. How much of the fiscal space went to debt service? How much reduced new borrowing? How much reached infrastructure, security, education or social support and what measurable improvement did citizens receive?

Some genuine gains exist and should be acknowledged without denial or exaggeration: clearance of the airline FX backlog, improved FX liquidity, a changed refining landscape, student financing initiatives. These matter. They do not erase the deeper reality that food inflation, living costs and eroded purchasing power still crush ordinary households.

Subsidy removal and naira collapse cannot be separated

Nigeria underwent two seismic adjustments at once: ending the subsidy and allowing the naira to find a more realistic rate. One improved fiscal arithmetic. The other multiplied the naira cost of everything imported or dollar-linked. When revenue rises 150 per cent while the cost of delivering the same road or hospital rises 200 per cent, government holds more paper and less capacity. That net effect is the only honest measure.

Citizens feel the truth in their pockets

A worker whose salary moves from ₦100,000 to ₦150,000 while the cost of his basic life jumps from ₦80,000 to ₦180,000 is not richer. He is poorer with more naira. The same principle applies to the state. Governments exist for citizens, not for FAAC press releases.

What Nigeria needs now

The answer is not “Look at FAAC” and it is not “Nothing was saved.” Subsidy removal reduced a crushing obligation and redistributed fiscal capacity. Inflation and depreciation have simultaneously eaten much of the real value of that capacity.

Nigeria therefore needs a proper, annual Subsidy Removal Fiscal Impact Account not propaganda, not opposition theatre. Numbers presented in constant 2023 naira, in dollar equivalent, and in real infrastructure purchasing power. Only then can citizens judge whether the country is stronger or merely counting larger piles of weaker currency.

Falana is right to demand accountability. The question must grow larger: After debt, inflation, depreciation and delivery costs, is Nigeria genuinely richer?

When next we hear that states now receive three times what they used to, Nigerians should answer with one clear, unforgiving question:

Three times the money or three times the naira?

They are not the same thing. Until we measure progress by what the money can still buy and what citizens can still feel, we will keep celebrating bigger numbers while the roads, the hospitals, the schools and the household budgets remain poorer.

Signed

Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo.

National Chairman AATSG

Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu Support Group

Tuesday 1st September 2026.

Final Version.

WHERE IS THE SUBSIDY MONEY?

Nigeria Must First Ask: Are We Richer or Just Sharing More Naira?

By Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo

Subsidy removal stopped an unsustainable bleed. That much isn’t really in dispute. What remains hotly contested is whether the higher FAAC figures now being celebrated actually translate into more power to build, heal and feed, or simply more paper naira chasing a weakening currency.

Femi Falana, SAN, asked the question that had to be asked: Where are the benefits of petrol subsidy removal? Before any official points to the FAAC numbers, Nigerians should press a tougher, blunter question: Are governments receiving more real resources, or just more devalued naira?

The old regime was bankrupt

Intellectual honesty requires that we begin here. The subsidy system had turned into a fiscal sinkhole. Daily consumption figures that made little sense, rampant smuggling, opaque claims, ballooning Ways and Means advances, debt service swallowing revenue, airlines stranded with hundreds of millions of dollars, Nigeria had reached the brink. President Tinubu’s May 29, 2023 declaration, “Subsidy is gone,” was a response to a real emergency. Necessary, yes. But necessity is not the same as a blank cheque for outcomes.

There was never a giant pot of “subsidy savings”

Removing subsidy did not open some hidden vault of trillions waiting to be shared. What it mostly did was eliminate a recurring liability. That creates fiscal room. It does not, by itself, create real wealth. So the sharper questions remain: What was done with that room? And after the naira’s collapse, how much is that room actually worth today?

More naira is not more power

Officials are right to say that states and local governments now receive much larger FAAC allocations. Nominally, yes. Economically, that’s only part of the story. Prosperity is measured by what money can actually buy, not by how many zeros appear on a statement.

A bag of cement makes the point with painful clarity. When a state received ₦10 billion and cement was around ₦4,700, that allocation could buy roughly 2.13 million bags. Today, that same state may receive ₦25 billion, an eye-catching 150 per cent increase. Yet at ₦14,500 a bag, it buys only about 1.72 million bags. More naira. Fewer bags. The numbers don’t lie.

Apply that same logic across diesel, bitumen, steel, machinery, medical equipment, foreign services, contractor finance and salaries, and the claim that allocations have “tripled” starts to ring hollow unless we also ask what those trillions can still deliver.

The same test for Abuja and the 36 states

Governors cannot simply hide behind inflation. Higher nominal receipts still require transparent accounting of outcomes: kilometres of road, classrooms, primary healthcare centres, fertiliser, megawatts, boreholes. The Federal Government faces exactly the same test. How much of that fiscal space went to debt service? How much reduced fresh borrowing? How much reached infrastructure, security, education or social support, and what measurable improvement did citizens actually see?

There are some real gains, and they should be acknowledged without denial or hype: clearance of the airline FX backlog, improved FX liquidity, a changed refining landscape, student financing initiatives. These are meaningful. Still, they do not cancel the deeper reality that food inflation, living costs and eroded purchasing power continue to crush ordinary households.

Subsidy removal and naira collapse cannot be separated

Nigeria went through two seismic adjustments at once: ending the subsidy and allowing the naira to find a more realistic rate. One improved the fiscal arithmetic. The other sharply increased the naira cost of everything imported or dollar-linked. When revenue rises by 150 per cent while the cost of delivering that same road or hospital rises by 200 per cent, government is left holding more paper and less actual capacity. That net effect, really, is the only honest measure.

Citizens feel the truth in their pockets

A worker whose salary rises from ₦100,000 to ₦150,000 while the cost of basic living jumps from ₦80,000 to ₦180,000 is not richer. He is poorer, just with more naira. The same logic applies to the state. Governments exist for citizens, not for FAAC press statements.

What Nigeria needs now

The answer is neither “Look at FAAC” nor “Nothing was saved.” Subsidy removal reduced a punishing obligation and redistributed fiscal capacity. At the same time, inflation and depreciation have eaten away much of the real value of that capacity.

Nigeria therefore needs a proper, annual Subsidy Removal Fiscal Impact Account, not propaganda, not opposition theatre. Numbers should be presented in constant 2023 naira, in dollar equivalent, and in real infrastructure purchasing power. Only then can citizens judge whether the country is truly stronger, or merely counting larger heaps of weaker currency.

Falana is right to demand accountability. But the question must become even bigger: After debt, inflation, depreciation and delivery costs, is Nigeria genuinely richer?

The next time we hear that states now receive three times what they once did, Nigerians should respond with one clear, unforgiving question:

Three times the money or three times the naira?

They are not the same thing. Until we measure progress by what money can still buy and what citizens can still feel, we will keep celebrating bigger figures while the roads, hospitals, schools and household budgets remain poorer.

Signed

Otunba (Dr) Abdulfalil Abayomi Odunowo.

National Chairman AATSG

Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu Support Group.