Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament on September 17 that intelligence from NATO, Ukrainian, and allied services now points to a clear Russian plan: hybrid drone and missile strikes on countries backing Ukraine, including Poland.
The aim, Tusk said, is not a conventional invasion. It is to hit logistics, test NATO’s nerve, and then call the damage an accident. If a drone or missile crosses the border and causes wreckage, Moscow’s line would be that there is no case for Article 5. The point is to make collective defense look theoretical.
Tusk called this the most likely scenario for the coming months, as Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian cities, rail lines, and warehouses. He also flagged a new problem: jet-powered drones that fly higher and faster, harder to stop before they reach a target.
This is not a sudden alarm. Warsaw has been warning for months that the eastern flank would be probed this way. The difference now, Tusk said, is that the assessments are consistent and hard to dismiss.
The message from Warsaw is simple. If Russia can strike a NATO member and walk it back as a mistake, the alliance’s guarantee is the real target.
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