The release of candidates’ lists by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the 2027 general election, especially for the House of Representatives, has brought renewed attention to a growing political reality in Ondo State.
Several former members, aspirants, and chieftains of the All Progressives Congress (APC) are now seeking elective offices under opposition platforms.
While political defections are not unusual in Nigeria’s democracy, the movement of prominent APC figures into parties such as the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and African Democratic Congress (ADC) has raised questions about the potential impact on the ruling party’s electoral strength, particularly in key constituencies.
Among the notable cases is Tajudeen Adefisoye, popularly known as “Small Alhaji,” who is contesting for the Idanre/Ifedore Federal Constituency seat on the SDP platform after previously being associated with the APC and participating in its political processes.
Prince Idowu Mafimisebi, a former APC chieftain, is contesting the Ilaje/Ese-Odo Federal Constituency seat under the PDP, while Gbenga Edema, a former APC figure who later emerged as the NNPP governorship candidate in the 2024 Ondo governorship election, is now contesting for a Reps seat under the ADC.
In the Ondo South Senatorial District, Matthew Oyerinmade (MATO), a former APC chieftain and aspirant, is contesting on the PDP platform.
For political observers, the significance of these defections lies not merely in the departure of individual politicians, but in the possibility that they could take along substantial support bases built over years within the APC structure.
The Mandate Elders Forum, a political pressure group in the state, has argued that some of the aggrieved APC members who left the party still maintain strong grassroots networks capable of influencing electoral outcomes.
Speaking on the development, the group’s leader, Demola Ijabiyi, contended that some of the politicians now contesting on other platforms were previously influential figures within the APC.
According to him, “The Governor cannot say he didn’t know that Tajudeen Adefisoye, who is now in SDP, has many followers in Idanre. Tajudeen is a close ally of the Governor. Look at Oyerinmade too, going for Senate under PDP. These are political bigwigs.”
The forum also criticized the reconciliation efforts undertaken by the APC, arguing that the process has not been sufficiently effective in bringing aggrieved members back into the fold.
The allegation, however, comes against the backdrop of repeated assurances by Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa that he has neither encouraged nor sponsored any member to leave the APC.
The Governor has consistently warned party leaders and members against anti-party activities and factional tendencies, insisting that the APC must remain united ahead of future elections.
Political analyst and legal practitioner, Alexander Ojo, believes the development presents both a challenge and a test of the APC’s political machinery.
“As the 2027 general election approaches, the political landscape in Ondo State is beginning to reveal an important challenge for the ruling APC: the growing number of former party chieftains and aspirants seeking their fortunes on opposition platforms,” he said.
According to Ojo, the major concern for the APC is not simply the loss of prominent politicians, but the possibility of losing votes and grassroots structures alongside them.
“The inability of APC reconciliation efforts to completely resolve the grievances of some of these political actors is significant and would have a negative effect. In politics, reconciliation is successful only when former rivals are sufficiently convinced that they still have a meaningful place within the political family.
“Where that fails, the consequence can be vote fragmentation,” he stated.
This argument is particularly relevant in constituencies such as Idanre/Ifedore and Ilaje/Ese-Odo, where elections have historically been competitive and where individual political influence often plays a major role in determining outcomes.
Political history in Ondo State suggests that candidates with strong personal followership can sometimes outperform the strength of their party labels.
Adefisoye himself demonstrated this in 2019 when he won the House of Representatives seat for Idanre/Ifedore on the SDP platform before later joining the APC.
The implication is that some of the defectors may still command loyalty from supporters who identify more with individual politicians than with political parties. If such supporters follow their preferred candidates to opposition platforms, the APC could face vote losses in strategic constituencies.
Ojo argues that the outcome will largely depend on whether the APC can successfully retain the loyalty of its grassroots supporters despite the defections.
“A former aspirant does not necessarily take all his supporters away from a party. However, elections are often decided by margins. If a significant percentage of people who would ordinarily vote APC follow a former aspirant to another platform, the effect could be substantial, particularly in closely contested constituencies,” he noted.
For the opposition parties, the arrival of former APC figures provides a shortcut to building viable political structures. Rather than starting from scratch, parties such as the SDP, PDP, and ADC can leverage the networks, name recognition, and local influence of politicians who have spent years operating within the APC.
Ondo APC Spokesperson and SSA to the Governor on Public engagement, Steve Otaloro, Speaking with Daily Trust.
But the APC spokesperson in Ondo State, Steve Otaloro, down played the purported defection, saying ‘’The fact that somebody previously belonged to the APC does not mean that every member of the party’s structure, every supporter or every voter automatically follows that individual to another political platform.
‘’The APC remains the governing party in Ondo State and has a formidable political structure across the state’s 18 local government areas and the entire 203 wards across the state. More importantly, the party is entering the election with the advantage of incumbency, an established grassroots network, experienced political leaders and a record of governance that it intends to take directly to the people.’’
According to Otaloro, who also the Senior Special Adviser to the state Governor, ‘’a candidate may have personal popularity, relationships and supporters, but an election is fought across wards, polling units, local governments and constituencies. Political structures matter, and the APC is working to ensure that its structures remain cohesive, mobilised and focused.
‘’At the same time, we respect the constitutional right of every Nigerian to belong to and contest elections under any political party of his or her choice. We will not attack anybody for exercising that democratic right. But we are equally confident that the electorate will ultimately decide which candidates and which political party deserves their mandate.’’
He said the emergence of candidates from other parties should therefore be seen within the broader context of democratic competition rather than portrayed as evidence of an APC collapse.
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