Chief Chekwas Okorie, the founding national chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), has offered a striking perspective on Nigeria’s electoral dynamics, asserting that former presidential candidate Peter Obi was largely responsible for the Labour Party’s remarkable showing in the 2023 elections.
Okorie emphasized that political influence in Nigeria extends beyond the control of governors, incumbency advantages, or entrenched party machinery.
Speaking in an interview with The Sun, Okorie directly challenged assumptions that the All Progressives Congress (APC) can secure a 2027 victory solely through its control of governors, state legislatures, and political structures.
He described such calculations as misleading, arguing that electoral outcomes often defy elite expectations and conventional political metrics.
According to Okorie, Obi’s entry into the Labour Party represented a turning point that reshaped voter behavior across the nation. “If you are using that type of statistics to measure electoral strength and prospects, then you may say that Tinubu has won already, but it doesn’t really happen like that. For instance, Peter Obi was almost a one-man army in the Labour Party,” he said.
Okorie noted that Obi joined the Labour Party after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), forfeiting his nomination fee, yet still built a formidable movement on a national scale without the usual financial or structural advantages most political parties enjoy.
Okorie pointed to the Southeast as a clear example of voters acting independently of political officeholders.
He highlighted the defeats of sitting governors in Abia and Enugu, who failed in their bids for the Senate despite wielding significant influence, while credible electoral processes in Abia eventually facilitated Alex Otti’s rise to the governorship after years of political setbacks.
He also cited Delta State, where Obi defeated an incumbent governor who ran as a vice-presidential candidate, alongside a sitting speaker contesting the governorship, underscoring the limits of incumbency and party advantage in swaying voters.
He stressed that in 2023, Obi’s appeal carried him to victory in 11 southern states despite lacking a large campaign war chest or a nationwide party infrastructure.
Okorie observed that while Obi now operates within a party with governors, lawmakers, and extensive structures, his 2023 campaign demonstrated the ability to mobilize support and inspire a movement even in the absence of traditional electoral advantages.
Okorie also cautioned against overestimating the electoral value of political defections to the ruling party.
He insisted that many defections are motivated by personal protection or political survival rather than an actual transfer of votes, adding that elite-driven calculations often overlook grassroots realities.
In his own words, “Before he joined the party, he had already paid the nomination in the PDP and left the money when he saw he wasn’t going to be nominated, and he moved to the LP, which was practically obscure, and they were begging people to come and become candidates. Many that contested under the party didn’t pay nomination fees.”
Through these observations, Okorie highlighted a recurring theme in Nigerian politics: voter behavior is increasingly independent, often prioritizing credibility, charisma, and shared vision over party machinery or political patronage.
His reflections suggest that political forecasting based solely on institutional control or the number of governors a party commands may overlook the decisive influence of popular support, as demonstrated by Obi’s performance in 2023.
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