By Asalu Adegboyega Yinka
Aradel Holdings Plc was quoted on the Nigerian Exchange by way of introduction on October 14, 2024, at a reference price of ₦702.69 per share.
The stock initially gained strong momentum, rising from ₦702.69 to an all-time high of ₦850.10 during its early days of trading. However, the initial euphoria was followed by aggressive profit-taking. By November 3, 2024, less than three weeks after its listing, Aradel had plunged to an all-time low of ₦401.10. The sharp decline wiped out nearly ₦960 billion in market value and caught many retail investors off guard.
For almost a year, ₦850.10 remained a major supply zone and resistance level. The stock eventually broke above this level on October 27, 2025, when it traded around ₦869, marking the beginning of a much stronger price discovery phase.
The dramatic rally that followed demonstrates how external factors can significantly influence the valuation of oil and gas companies.
Aradel opened 2026 at approximately ₦680 but subsequently surged to an all-time high of ₦2,024 in May 2026. One of the major catalysts behind the rally was the sharp increase in international crude oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran. Oil prices, which had traded around $70 per barrel, subsequently moved above $100 per barrel during the peak of the geopolitical crisis.
This is particularly important because the oil market was broadly bearish throughout 2025. As a result, several oil and gas stocks, including Seplat, Aradel, TotalEnergies, Eterna and Oando, struggled to generate significant price appreciation. Conoil, for instance, declined sharply from ₦387.20 in 2025 to approximately ₦187.20 by December of the same year.
The narrative changed considerably in 2026 as the oil market turned bullish. Higher crude prices, driven partly by geopolitical risk and supply concerns, provided a favourable environment for upstream oil producers such as Aradel and Seplat because stronger international oil prices can translate into higher revenue and improved earnings in terms of profitability.
This brings us to the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery IPO.
Investors considering the Dangote IPO should understand that an oil-related company is not insulated from global events. Although Dangote's integrated business model and refining operations differ materially from those of upstream producers such as Aradel and Seplat, its profitability can still be influenced by crude oil prices, refining margins, foreign exchange movements, geopolitical tensions and global energy-market conditions.
Therefore, investors should not approach the Dangote IPO purely from the perspective of its initial share-price performance.
If you are buying Dangote for the long term, you must be prepared for volatility.
The Aradel experience demonstrates an important lesson: a fundamentally strong company can experience a substantial decline shortly after listing, remain below its previous high for an extended period, and later embark on a powerful rally when its underlying industry cycle becomes favourable.
For long-term investors, the key question should therefore not be “Will Dangote rise immediately after listing?”
The more important question is:
“What are the company's earnings, cash flows, valuation and competitive position likely to look like over the next 5-10 years across different oil-price and economic cycles?”
That is the mindset investors should have when participating in the Dangote IPO.
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