Nigeria’s external sector faced significant headwinds in 2025, as the country’s overall Balance of Payments (BOP) surplus plummeted by 38.1 per cent to $4.23 billion, down from the $6.83 billion recorded in 2024.
Provisional data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reveals a complex economic landscape where a sharp decline in crude oil earnings and a massive retreat in foreign portfolio investments outweighed the gains made in gas exports and the emergence of the Dangote Refinery as a major exporter of refined petroleum products.
Oil earnings slump, gas/ refined products rally
The Current Account, which represents the net of the country’s trade in goods and services, remained in surplus but saw a significant contraction. The surplus fell by 26.2 per cent to $14.04 billion in 2025, compared to $19.03 billion in the previous year.
A major driver of this decline was the 14.4 per cent drop in crude oil exports, which fell to $31.54 billion from $36.85 billion in 2024. This shortfall in oil revenue occurred despite a 21.4 per cent surge in gas exports, which climbed to $10.51 billion.
Furthermore, the Goods Account, a subset of the current account, recorded a higher surplus of $14.51 billion. This was bolstered by the Dangote Refinery, which contributed $6.13 billion in refined petroleum exports and helped slash fuel imports by 28.9 per cent, from $14.06 billion to $10.00 billion.
FDI surges as FPI retreats
The Financial Account underwent a dramatic shift, moving from a net lending position of $9.65 billion in 2024 to a net borrowing position of $1.69 billion in 2025.
This reversal was largely fueled by a 48.3 per cent crash in Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows, which dropped to $8.04 billion from $15.55 billion.
Conversely, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows saw a robust increase of 149.1 per cent, rising to $4.01 billion from $1.61 billion in 2024, indicating long-term investors showed renewed confidence in the Nigerian economy, particularly in equity and reinvested earnings.
Rising costs in services, others
The pressure on the BOP was further compounded by rising out-payments in the services and primary income accounts. The deficit in the services account grew to $14.58 billion, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, and insurance.
More strikingly, net out-payments in the primary income account surged by 60.9 per cent to $9.09 billion. The CBN attributed this to a spike in dividends and interest payments to non-resident investors, particularly those with portfolio and direct investments in the country.
External Reserves strengthens
Despite the narrowing BOP surplus, Nigeria’s external reserves recorded a healthy accretion of 13.8 per cent, ending the year at $45.75 billion. This growth in reserves provides a critical buffer for the economy as it navigates the structural shifts in its trade and investment balances.
Current account surplus falls 26%
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s current account surplus fell year-on-year, YoY, by 26 percent to $14.04 billion in 2025 from $19.03 billion in 2024.
The decline was as a result of decrease in crude oil exports, crude oil imports by
Dangote Refinery, increase in Non-oil imports and increase in net out-payment for services.
The BoP report stated: “Provisional, BOP, statistics for 2025 shows a current account surplus of $14.04 billion, which was lower than the $19.03 billion in the previous year but significantly higher than the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023.
“Major contributors to the decline in Current Account are the decrease in crude oil exports from $36.85 billion to $31.54 billion (14.41 percent), crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery, increase in Non-oil imports from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion (13.6 percent) and increase in net out-payment for services from $13.36 billion to $14.58 billion (9.13 percent).
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